Dr. Thomas Rupp
Do not go where the path may lead; go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.
Ralph W. Emerson
Head of Risk Management and Pricing (TOTAL Energie Gas GmbH) [2011-]
- Senior Risk Analyst [2011-2013]
- Manager of Methods and Applications [2013-2015]
- Manager of Risk Management and Pricing [2015-2016]
- Head of Risk Management and Pricing [2017-]
Since joining the newly founded company Mr. Rupp is responsible for all pricing algorithms (all sale channels), forecast algorithms (buttom-up and top-down) and the German market models (price and consumption) to derive all risk premiums for the gas and power markets. The individual assessment of difficult offers for very large customers is a key contribution to the B2B business. The developed pricing tools now cover the wide range of indidividual pricing of large customers (MATLAB based with interface to SAP and Ene’t), a web-based solution (Java, JSON) for multi-customers and external agents to Excel/Oracle based matrix pricing and tariff pricing. Aside the forecast logic within the calculation process, he set up the time series structure and forecast algorithms in Belvis (old) and Robotron (new EDM system). For several years he was responsible for the daily nomination process for gas and power. Another major project was the migration of all systems and processes to SAP.
Other tasks include the assessment of storages and weather derivatives, the generation of daily and hourly PFCs, data mining, reporting and sales forecasts. Invoice validation and invoice prediction are also part of his responsibilities. Moreover, the development of local software solutions to manage data flows and data processing is included, as well as software development with the UK-based IT department. He works in an international environment with colleagues from the affiliates in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium and France.
Another key role is the support of other departments, especially finance (for HGB and IRFS reporting), operations (quality assurance), contract management (process optimization), product development, credit (credit and interest rate risks), marketing (data processing), law (REMIT and other regulatory neccessities) and sales (margin optimization). He is the main interface to the UK based procurement department. Before the migration project he was holding administrative privileges for all systems.
Analyst for Special Assignments (EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG) [2009-2011]
Together with the Trading department Mr. Rupp conceptualized a new approach of incentive driven risk premiums for the B2B business. He defined and implemented the automatic deduction of customer properties from historical load curves. He conceptualized and implemented an automated nomination report which optimized nomination results by estimating short term forecast errors. He customized the long term forecast of one of the largest car manufacturers in the world based on site specific production estimates. Together with the Trading department and the IFO Institute he created the IFO-Power-Index.
Other projects included daily base-peak-spread driven products, demand-side-management (DSM) products, products for highly volatile meters (with option pricing), improved credit scoring (with logistic insolvency estimators), optimizing power forecasts for steel factories, theoretical work (e.g. on index products or manual offpeak/peak price spreads) and providing tools to optimize processes.
He consulted multiple other departments (from product development and law to trading and business development).
Research Associate (TU Darmstadt) [2004-2009]
Doctoral thesis: „Meta-Analysis of Crime and Deterrence – a Comprehensive Review of the Literature“
The interdisplininary work covered multiple disciplines from economics, criminology and law to sociology, psychology and finance. Almost 10000 studies in the last 100 years were identified, scrutinized and out of 840 relevant studies 700 studies were recorded (using self-developed LAMP based solutions). Data collection was done together with the criminology department of the University of Heidelberg (alongside a close collaboration and joint publications).
The first part of the thesis deals with the theoretical summation and interpretation of the existing body of work. The second half covers the data processing and the statistical bi- and multivariate analysis of the data. A wide range of parametric and non-parametric statistical approaches were used to derive the presented robust data mining results. Existing hypotheses and previously unknown relationships are interpreted using these findings.
He also supported teaching in Darmstadt and held multiple tutorials during his graduation in Frankfurt.