Profile

Dr. Thomas Rupp

Nothing will ever be attempted, if all possible objections must first be overcome.

Samuel Johnson, Rasselas, 1759

Expert in Risk Management, Pricing and Forecasting for the German Power and Gas Market

Dr. Thomas Rupp is the Head of Risk Management and Pricing of the TOTAL Energie Gas GmbH. After his excellent graduation in mathematics at the Goethe University in Frankfurt in 2003 he obtained his doctorate (summa cum laude) in economics in 2008 at the TU Darmstadt. He has extensive work experience in the energy industry sector as well as in research and teaching.

He worked for EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG as a specialist (2009-2011) for the B2B power market and then joined the newly founded TOTAL Energie Gas GmbH in 2011 as senior risk analyst. He is now head of the departments responsible for all pricing and forecast algorithms, risk premiums and German market models for gas and power, as well as the pricing of all products.

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Key Words

Risk Models, Pricing Models, Market Models, Risk Management, Forecasting, Nomination, Analytics, Quantitative Methods, Data Mining, Stochastic Processes, Econometrics, Criminometrics, Power, Gas, B2B, Products, Tariffs, Business Development, Software Development, Project Management, Programming, Stata, R, VBA, MS Office, SQL, LaTeX, Windows, Linux, SAP, Robotron, Belvis, SuperOffice

 

CV Details

Dr. Thomas Rupp

Do not go where the path may lead; go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.

Ralph W. Emerson

Head of Risk Management and Pricing (TOTAL Energie Gas GmbH) [2011-]

  1. Senior Risk Analyst [2011-2013]
  2. Manager of Methods and Applications [2013-2015]
  3. Manager of Risk Management and Pricing [2015-2016]
  4. Head of Risk Management and Pricing [2017-]

Since joining the newly founded company Mr. Rupp is responsible for all pricing algorithms (all sale channels), forecast algorithms (buttom-up and top-down) and the German market models (price and consumption) to derive all risk premiums for the gas and power markets. The individual assessment of difficult offers for very large customers is a key contribution to the B2B business. The developed pricing tools now cover the wide range of indidividual pricing of large customers (MATLAB based with interface to SAP and Ene’t), a web-based solution (Java, JSON) for multi-customers and external agents to Excel/Oracle based matrix pricing and tariff pricing. Aside the forecast logic within the calculation process, he set up the time series structure and forecast algorithms in Belvis (old) and Robotron (new EDM system). For several years he was responsible for the daily nomination process for gas and power. Another major project was the migration of all systems and processes to SAP.

Other tasks include the assessment of storages and weather derivatives, the generation of daily and hourly PFCs, data mining, reporting and sales forecasts. Invoice validation and invoice prediction are also part of his responsibilities. Moreover, the development of local software solutions to manage data flows and data processing is included, as well as software development with the UK-based IT department. He works in an international environment with colleagues from the affiliates in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium and France.

Another key role is the support of other departments, especially finance (for HGB and IRFS reporting), operations (quality assurance), contract management (process optimization), product development, credit (credit and interest rate risks), marketing (data processing), law (REMIT and other regulatory neccessities) and sales (margin optimization). He is the main interface to the UK based procurement department. Before the migration project he was holding administrative privileges for all systems.

Analyst for Special Assignments (EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG) [2009-2011]

Together with the Trading department Mr. Rupp conceptualized a new approach of incentive driven risk premiums for the B2B business. He defined and implemented the automatic deduction of customer properties from historical load curves. He conceptualized and implemented an automated nomination report which optimized nomination results by estimating short term forecast errors. He customized the long term forecast of one of the largest car manufacturers in the world based on site specific production estimates. Together with the Trading department and the IFO Institute he created the IFO-Power-Index.

Other projects included daily base-peak-spread driven products, demand-side-management (DSM) products, products for highly volatile meters (with option pricing), improved credit scoring (with logistic insolvency estimators), optimizing power forecasts for steel factories, theoretical work (e.g. on index products or manual offpeak/peak price spreads) and providing tools to optimize processes.

He consulted multiple other departments (from product development and law to trading and business development).

Research Associate (TU Darmstadt) [2004-2009]

Doctoral thesis: „Meta-Analysis of Crime and Deterrence – a Comprehensive Review of the Literature“

The interdisplininary work covered multiple disciplines from economics, criminology and law to sociology, psychology and finance. Almost 10000 studies in the last 100 years were identified, scrutinized and out of 840 relevant studies 700 studies were recorded (using self-developed LAMP based solutions). Data collection was done together with the criminology department of the University of Heidelberg (alongside a close collaboration and joint publications).

The first part of the thesis deals with the theoretical summation and interpretation of the existing body of work. The second half covers the data processing and the statistical bi- and multivariate analysis of the data. A wide range of parametric and non-parametric statistical approaches were used to derive the presented robust data mining results. Existing hypotheses and previously unknown relationships are interpreted using these findings.

He also supported teaching in Darmstadt and held multiple tutorials during his graduation in Frankfurt.

Publications

Dr. Thomas Rupp

Read not to contradict and confute, nor to believe and take for granted, nor to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider.

Francis Bacon, 1625

Publications

Meta-analysis of empirical studies on deterrence, in Kury/Shea (Hrsg.): Punitivity – International Developments Vol. 3: Punitiveness and Punishment, Universitätsverlag Dr. N. Brockmeyer (2011), 315-378, with D. Dölling, H. Entorf and D. Hermann

Rational Actors in Balancing Markets: a Game-Theoretic Model, The Icfai University Journal of Behavioral Finance (2009), 6 (2), 65-85

Is Deterrence Effective? Results of a Meta-Analysis of Punishment., European Journal of Criminal Policy and Research (2009), 15 (1), 201-224, with D. Dölling, H. Entorf and D. Hermann

Meta Analysis of Crime and Deterrence – A Comprehensive Review of the Literature, Books on Demand GmbH, Norderstedt (2008)

Metaanalyse empirischer Abschreckungsstudien – Untersuchungsansatz und erste empirische Befunde, in Lösel/Bender/Jehle (Hrsg.): Kriminologie und wissensbasierte Kriminalpolitik, Entwicklungs- und Evaluationsforschung; Neue Kriminologische Schriftenreihe, Forum Verlag Godesberg (2007), 632-648 with D. Dölling, H. Entorf, D. Hermann and A. Woll

Zur generalpräventiven Abschreckungswirkung des Strafrechts – Befunde einer Metaanalyse,
Soziale Probleme, Sonderausgabe: Härtere Strafen – weniger Kriminalität? Zur Verschärfung der Sanktionseinstellungen (2007), with D. Dölling, H. Entorf, D. Hermann, A. Häring and A. Woll

Discussion Papers

Meta Analysis of Empirical Deterrence Studies: an explorative contest, Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics No. 174, Darmstadt (2006)

Rational Actors in Balancing Markets: a Game-Theoretic Model and Results, Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics No. 171, Darmstadt (2006)

Metaanalyse empirischer Abschreckungsstudien – Untersuchungsansatz und erste empirische Befunde, Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics No. 170, Darmstadt (2006) with D. Dölling, H. Entorf, D. Hermann and A. Woll

Rough set methodology in meta-analysis – a comparative and exploratory analysis, Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics No. 157, Darmstadt (2005)

Conference Presentations

Rational Actors and Balancing Markets – A Game-Theoretic Model, Jahrestagung 2007 des Vereins für Socialpolitik, München (9.10.-12.10.2007)

Meta-Analysis of Empirical Deterrence Studies – Basic Concepts and General Results, The Stockholm Criminology Symposium (4.6.-6.6.2007)

Publication Bias in Criminometrics – Motivation, Problems and Preliminary Results, Jahrestagung 2006 des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Bayreuth (26.9.-29.9.2006)

Meta-Analysis of Empirical Deterrence Studies – Basic Concepts and Preliminary Results, 6th Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology, Tübingen (26.8.-29.8.2006)

Meta-Analyse empirischer Abschreckungsstudien – Untersuchungsansatz und erste Befunde, 42. kriminologisches Kolloquium der südwestdeutschen und schweizerischen kriminologischen Institute, Flehingen (30.6.-2.7.2006)

Contact

Dr. Thomas Rupp

Residence: Stuttgart, Germany

request@thomasrupp.de

Mobile phone: upon request